Risk Assessment

Back to the basics. What do you need to live? Basic preparedness involves taking a look at your personal context in regard to what you need to live and creating a plan for continued access to these things in the event of certain expected, or unexpected, events.

Before considering WHAT you need to prepare, it is important to consider what you are preparing FOR. Are you preparing for the possibility that you will have extra guests at the house, and might want to make more pancakes for breakfast than you normally do? Or are you preparing for a nuclear winter, where society has completely collapsed and any venture out of your sealed bunker is a life-threatening event? In any context, one of these scenarios is more probable than the other. Lots of people have hosted unexpected guests, and the number of cataclysmic nuclear events is relatively small. However, not having enough pancake mix is relatively minor if the face of nuclear winter.

This is where the Probability Severity Matrix comes into play. This matrix is a tool for risk assessment. When considering your basic preparedness needs, it can be helpful to consider the probability of an event in addition to the severity of the repercussions of that event, should it occur.

In this matrix, there are four combinations:

• High probability, high severity events

  • These should be the center of your focus. These are events that are both likely to occur and carry severe consequences with them. As always, the specific events rely on your context, but some common events to consider might include power outages, natural disasters, or loss of employment.

• High probability, low severity events

  • These are events that may be common, but do not carry the risk of loss of life or limb. These events could warrant attention, but may be more related to comfort or quality of life.

• Low probability, high severity events

  • These are the events that preppers love to focus on, such as nuclear war and asteroids hitting the earth. While these do carry serious consequences, they are very unlikely to happen. Events with a higher probability warrant attention before these events.

• Low probability, low severity events

  • These events could be considered inconsequential. Even if they happen, the effect they have on you would be negligible. These events COULD occur, but that does not mean that they are worth spending resources on.

With these classifications in mind, you have the ability to look at the POSSIBLE events you may face and determine which of them are PROBABLE and SEVERE. Those events are what should be prepared for first. This could mean stocking up beans and rice in buckets in the event that stores close down. This could mean getting your amateur radio license in the event of a communications outage. This could mean setting aside money to pay for rent and food in the event of an unexpected job loss. All of this is dependent on your context.

With those PROBABLE and SEVERE events identified and preparations in place, you have the opportunity to consider other types of events. In practice, general preparedness covers a multitude of possibilities. You may have set money aside for rent in case of unexpected unemployment, but that money can be just as helpful when your car breaks down. The food and water you stored up for a natural disaster are equally useful in the event of a contagious disease outbreak. Address the PROBABLE and SEVERE events in your context first, and you will gain a clearer picture of the lower order events you need to prepare for as well as the ones that your preparations already cover.

Get up, gear up, get after it™

~ Eric